Why Pedro Acosta looks set for a future beyond KTM

When a 19-year-old Pedro Acosta made his MotoGP debut last season, many saw shades of Marc Marquez in him. After all, the KTM rookie showed many of the qualities Marquez had displayed over a decade earlier when he entered the premier class in 2013, fresh off a Moto2 title.

Like the man who would become a six-time MotoGP world champion, Acosta caught the eye for his determination, his confidence despite inexperience, and a fearless on-track style combined with an engaging personality off the circuit. Now into a second season in MotoGP, Acosta is inviting further parallels with Marquez – but this time it’s in terms of career strategy. More specifically, what to do when there are big question marks about your machinery for the foreseeable future.

Two years ago, Marquez devised a two-phase plan to test whether he was still competitive following a lengthy injury and his Honda’s severe loss of form. The first step was negotiating an early exit from his contract with Honda, allowing him to join Ducati last year. The second – which is playing out now – saw him become an official factory rider with the red-clad Bologna team.

However, that process only moved forward because Honda agreed to release the six-time champion without conditions. Throughout the months of speculation, Marquez stuck rigidly to his script: “I have a contract with Honda for 2024,” he repeated, praising the Tokyo-based brand all the while.

Acosta, who now finds himself in his own version of Marquez’s Honda pickle, appears to be taking a page out of the same playbook. So far, he’s said everything KTM’s management wants to hear. “I have a two-year contract and a factory behind me that has supported me since I was young,” he said at the last race in Qatar, where he was once again asked about his future and rumours of interest from rivals.

Still only 20, Acosta is one of the most sought-after riders in the paddock. He is widely seen as the natural heir to Marquez, ready to take up the mantle when the veteran eventually steps away. But KTM’s financial turmoil and the technical confusion surrounding its current project suggest the Austrian manufacturer’s garage might not be the best environment for a rider of Acosta’s talent and trajectory.

So far this season, his best result has been an eighth-place finish in Qatar. He’s currently 11th in the points standings. That makes him the top KTM rider – as any observer would have expected – but his overall position is unlikely to satisfy the ambitions of a rider who scored multiple podiums in his rookie season.

In Qatar, he even switched back to the 2024 RC16 in a fruitless bid to eliminate the KTM’s ongoing vibration issues.

While Acosta’s contract with KTM runs through to the end of 2026, the fact is it’s hard to imagine him still riding an orange bike in 2027 – especially with a new technical rulebook coming into play that year.

More importantly, there’s growing uncertainty over whether KTM will even be a part of the championship in two years’ time. On Tuesday night, Pierer Mobility, KTM’s parent company, announced it was still seeking an investor willing to inject €600 million by 23 May to meet its 30% share of a creditor-agreed restructuring plan.

In the meantime, Acosta is biding his time, eyeing the crucial test day scheduled for Monday at Jerez – an opportunity for KTM to address the inconsistency plaguing its prototype. “It’s probably the most important day of the year,” he said two races ago in Austin.

Albert Valera, Acosta’s representative, is saying nothing – but he’s clearly doing his job and exploring potential destinations for his charge. Among these is the factory Honda squad, where Luca Marini’s contract expires in December and Joan Mir’s a year later. At Losail, Valera met with Honda team manager Alberto Puig, who recently returned to his role after undergoing leg surgery that sidelined him for the first three rounds of the year. The meeting has fuelled speculation that Acosta could be the disruptive force HRC needs to spark its revival.

Pedro Acosta, Red Bull KTM Factory Racing

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

However, no manufacturer – least of all Honda – would interfere with another team’s rider unless that rider and his team had formally split. The simplest escape route for Acosta would be invoking a breach of contract. But that scenario hasn’t materialised – and it’s unlikely to, as KTM will tread very carefully.

While Acosta is tied to KTM throughout 2026, the Mattighofen-based manufacturer knows Acosta is free to sign with any team for the 2027 season. What’s more, he could even announce a move in advance – which would place KTM in an even more complicated position.

If that were to happen, the project built around the Spaniard as its cornerstone would be left even more exposed, while KTM would still be obliged to support a rider it knows is set to jump ship at the end of next year.