The data revealing how Liam Lawson lost his Red Bull seat

It’s been only three months since Red Bull announced Liam Lawson as Max Verstappen’s new teammate. Yet, in less than a hundred days, the New Zealander’s adventure with the Milton Keynes-based team has already come to an end, as Red Bull confirmed yet another mid-season change this morning.

Lawson will step back to Racing Bulls, while Yuki Tsunoda is promoted to the parent team, facing what could be the defining challenge of his career. There’s a certain irony in this move, as just three months ago, Lawson was chosen over the Japanese driver — not only for his mental strength but also for the potential seen in both racers.

During a short stint in Faenza, Lawson had shown performances close to those of Tsunoda, despite having only eleven races under his belt compared to Yuki’s four full seasons. Red Bull saw greater potential in the Kiwi, hoping he could be a medium-to-long-term solution.

The situation has completely shifted, though, and the circumstances are entirely different. The bet did not pay off, and in Milton Keynes, they opted for yet another change — one that feels more like a team casting its line and waiting for something to bite rather than a carefully planned decision, even though Tsunoda has demonstrated his qualities.

Before the season started and even after the Australian GP, Red Bull’s leadership assured that Lawson would be given time to adapt, waiting for him to race on tracks he was already familiar with. Yet, his adventure ended before he even reached one. So, what changed?

Where Verstappen excels, Lawson struggles

After the first two races, Helmut Marko, known for his direct and sharp comments, described Lawson as a “dazed boxer caught in a negative spiral” — ironically, the exact opposite of what was supposed to be one of his strengths, alongside his adaptability. However, what weighed most was the data analysis and the lack of significant progress, at a time when Red Bull feels they cannot afford to waste time or points.

Liam Lawson, Red Bull Racing

Foto di: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Lawson himself had asked the team for time at the end of the Chinese GP, fully aware that his seat was already at risk but also conscious that his start had not been trouble-free. He was slowed by a hydraulic leak during testing and missed an entire practice session in Australia due to a power unit failure.

While these issues don’t fully explain his struggles, they add fuel to the fire. A driver with little experience needs consistent track time, and when you factor in that the RB21 has proven to be a difficult car to master, the picture of his struggles becomes clearer.

Analyzing the data from the first weekend in Melbourne, a key issue quickly emerged that was later confirmed in China — Lawson wasn’t just lacking outright pace, but was also having a trying time putting a lap together. While it’s true that the New Zealander missed FP3, his qualifying session highlighted all his limitations and difficulties in handling the RB21.

Telemetry comparison – Verstappen v Lawson Australian GP Qualifying

Photo by: Gianluca D’Alessandro

To avoid elimination in Q1, Lawson was already pushing to the limit, yet his references were worse than Verstappen’s, and still far from his maximum potential. This was evident in slow corners like Turn 3 and Turn 11, where carrying speed through the corner after heavy braking is crucial, as well as in medium- and high-speed sections like Turn 6 and the 9/10 sequence.

The gap widened even further when Verstappen went on to push for the limit in Q3. While track conditions improved, in some corners, such as Turn 1, 6, and 10, the speed difference between the two exceeded 10 km/h—far too much.

Pushing too hard, and still falling short

However, the issue wasn’t just about performance but also how difficult it was for Lawson to string together a clean lap. It revealed just how challenging the RB21 is to handle, despite winter adjustments, and how the driver was overdriving in an attempt to find time. In Australia, Lawson’s final qualifying lap — his best effort — was not completed due to two mistakes: a slide at Turn 10 and a lock-up at the penultimate corner.

Liam Lawson, Red Bull Racing

Foto di: Red Bull Content Pool

This same pattern repeated itself in China’s Sprint qualifying, where another error at Turn 9 — carrying too much speed and running wide beyond the curb — prevented him from improving. The next day, despite carrying higher minimum speeds in the same section, he struggled with traction on exit due to an imperfect setup.

In three qualifying sessions with Red Bull, Lawson failed to improve in his final run because of errors he made in two of them, confirming how close to the limit he already was. Only in one session — the main race qualifying in China — did he manage to improve on his final attempt. 

Telemetry comparison – Verstappen v Lawson Chinese GP Qualifying

Photo by: Gianluca D’Alessandro

While in Australia, Lawson struggled in both slow and low-speed corners, while in Shanghai, the difficulties shifted slightly but remained centered around one key issue: car rotation. This was evident in the long Turn 1 sequence and the direction change in Turns 2/3, where the gap reached about 15 km/h, suffering the sever understeer in the race.

In high-speed areas like Turns 7 and 8, where steering input is minimal, Lawson performed well. However, as soon as the challenge became about attacking corners and pushing on entry, the gap to Verstappen widened. It’s no secret that the Dutchman relies heavily on a sharp front end, but his skill also lies in overcoming car issues to still carry impressive speed into corners.

Lawson, on the other hand, struggled from the start, suffering more than his teammate from the RB21’s instability in areas where Max, by contrast, makes the difference. Ultimately, three key factors contributed to Lawson’s struggles: lack of progress, the gap to the front, and difficulties managing a car that bites back. Some of his mistakes seemed to stem from trying too hard, only to achieve the opposite effect.

After the Chinese GP, Lawson asked for more time. But it wasn’t granted. Instead, Red Bull opted for another mid-season switch, bringing back the driver they had discarded just months before—desperately searching for an immediate fix to a much bigger problem.