Five things to watch out for at the Japanese GP

Will Tsunoda prove Red Bull right?

It’s a huge weekend for Yuki Tsunoda, as all eyes will be on him from the first laps on Friday – not just because he’s finally got himself in the Red Bull seat he’s been dreaming about for so long, but because his debut with the team coincides with his home race.

He’s aiming for a podium and says he’s welcoming expectation and pressure, yet it’s only when the running starts that he’ll face the reality of what is described as the toughest job in F1. Helmut Marko may be right: doing worse than Liam Lawson managed in the first two race weekends of 2025 will be difficult, but the RB21 is a tricky car to handle.

Will he avoid qualifying last? Can he get through to Q2? Or even Q3? Will he be able to score points in that second Red Bull car? Marko says Tsunoda will finish the season with Red Bull, but everybody knows how quickly the team bosses can change their minds. Tsunoda will need to deliver – and he needs to start doing that already this week.

– Oleg Karpov

Can Lawson bounce back after his Red Bull demotion?

With all spotlights on Tsunoda, looking at Liam Lawson is equally interesting. On Thursday, he’ll face the media for the first time after his Red Bull demotion, but the weekend itself can be one of opportunity – an opportunity to show the outside world that he is still a more-than-capable racing driver and one who deserves a longer career in F1.

It’s also an opportunity to prove Max Verstappen right. The Dutchman told us in Shanghai that Lawson could be quicker in a Racing Bulls car, as it is easier to drive and more predictable.

Suzuka is the first track of the season that Lawson knows well, and he can take some extra confidence from the past: Pierre Gasly has shown it’s perfectly possible to bounce back and even develop yourself as a team leader after a Red Bull demotion. It’s an example for Lawson to follow, ideally starting in Japan.

– Ronald Vording

Will McLaren continue to dominate?

While it is true that McLaren struggled to get things right on a sprint weekend with only one practice session in China, the team managed a solid 1-2 finish when it mattered most.

Now in Japan, McLaren will have more than enough time to perfect the MCL39. Yes, the same goes for its rivals, but the Woking-based outfit has shown it’s got the edge so far, and it would be surprising to see anyone gain so much in a weekend where there shouldn’t be any major upgrades.

What’s more, Lando Norris qualified third at Suzuka last year, less than three-tenths of a second behind the then-dominant Red Bull of Max Verstappen, well before McLaren’s famous Miami upgrade.

Lando Norris, McLaren, Oscar Piastri, McLaren

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

However, two things could spoil McLaren’s weekend: the weather and history. Rain could fall on Sunday, creating unexpected scenarios, while the last two times McLaren won the opening two grands prix, in 1998 and 2003, they failed to do so in the third round.

But the third time’s the charm, right?

– Federico Faturos

Norris’ response to Piastri’s win in Shanghai

With McLaren proving to be the team with the fastest car, the fight for the title could turn into an internal battle between Norris and Oscar Piastri. That’s why every point counts. It’s not just about being fast but also about being consistent and maximizing opportunities.

In their two years together, Norris has proven he can be the team’s benchmark in terms of raw speed, as he has consistently performed at a very high level. But that alone is not enough to fight for and win a world championship, as we saw last season. Consistency is what turns speed into titles.

Norris has the pace to stay ahead – he has shown it. But he needs to build confidence and put together a clean weekend without mistakes, especially in qualifying, to avoid starting behind. Piastri will keep improving and won’t wait for Norris. The Australian’s victory in China is a declaration of his title ambitions. Norris has to respond.

– Gianluca d’Alessandro

What is Ferrari’s true form?

McLaren is clearly in front. Red Bull is a step behind and so far still looks like a one-car operation. Mercedes is another step behind its direct rivals – but at least consistent so far, with George Russell delivering on a promise to become the team’s new and sole leader while Andrea Kimi Antonelli keeps learning and improving.

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari

Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

But where Ferrari stands in the battle at the top is still somewhat unknown.

The Melbourne weekend was baffling, as pace suddenly disappeared after a good Friday, and Shanghai only added more unknowns to the equation. Lewis Hamilton’s dominant performance in the sprint suggests there’s a lot of potential in the SF-25, but the main race wasn’t only scrappy – it ended in a double disqualification. As a result, Ferrari is only fifth in the constructors’ standings after two rounds.

A clean weekend in Japan from the Scuderia is necessary to assess its true form in 2025.

– Oleg Karpov